Resumen del producto

800x600 High mortalities following disease outbreaks can importantly reduce cultivated populations and result in economic losses. In this study, we present a continuous diphasic model (CDM) for dynamic pre- diction of survival of shrimp population, when affected by white spot disease (WSD). The model allows describing a smooth transition between two phases that correspond to survival before and after die-offs caused by the disease. The CDM is statisti- cally compared with a discontinuous diphasic model (DDM) reported by us in a previous investigation. Data from intensive commercial ponds were used for model comparison. Residual sum of squares ran- ged from 3.1 to 105.7 (CDM) and from 3.9 to 270.1 (DDM), indicating better ?tting and higher ?exibility of the CDM in all the cases analysed. The CDM was more adequate for describing the transition between phases, regardless of either the time when the tran- sition occurred, the speed of the transition and the total mortality occurring during the transition. We provide scripts in MATLAB code of the procedure to ?t the CDM. We conclude that the CDM is adequate to dynamically modelling survival of cultivated shrimp populations when affected by WSD. The model could be tested for other cultivated popula- tions when affected by disease.

Palabras clave: diphasic model; White spot disease; shrimp cultivation; survival model

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