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Resumen del producto
Juárez-Ruiz, A., M.A., Pardo, J.C., Hernández-Montoya, F.R., Elorriaga-Verplancken, M.d.l.Á., Milanés-Salinas, T., Norris, E., Beier & G., Heckel
(2022).
Guadalupe fur seal pup production predicted from annual variations of sea surface temperature in the southern California Current Ecosystem.
ICES Journal of Marine Science.
79(5): 1637-1648.
DOI: 10.1093/icesjms/fsac097.
Guadalupe fur seal pup production predicted from annual variations of sea surface temperature in the southern California Current Ecosystem
Ariadna Juárez-Ruiz 1, Mario A Pardo 2, Julio C Hernández-Montoya 3, Fernando R Elorriaga-Verplancken 4, María de los Ángeles Milanés-Salinas 3, Tenaya Norris 5, Emilio Beier 6 y Gisela Heckel 7
1 Centro de Investigación Científica y de Educación Superior de Ensenada (CICESE), Posgrado en Ciencias de la Vida—Biología Ambiental, Ensenada, Baja California 22860, Mexico
2 Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnología (CONACYT)—CICESE, Unidad La Paz, Laboratorio de Macroecología Marina, La Paz, Baja California Sur 23050, Mexico
3 Grupo de Ecología y Conservación de Islas (GECI), Ensenada, Baja California 22800, Mexico
4 Instituto Politécnico Nacional, Centro Interdisciplinario de Ciencias Marinas, 23096 La Paz, Baja California Sur, Mexico
5 The Marine Mammal Center, Sausalito, CA 94965, USA
6 CICESE, Unidad La Paz, Laboratorio de Macroecología Marina, La Paz, Baja California Sur 23050, Mexico
7 Centro de Investigación Científica y de Educación Superior de Ensenada (CICESE), Departamento de Biología de la Conservación, Ensenada, Baja California 22860, Mexico
We evaluated the effects of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the southern California Current Ecosystem on the annual Guadalupe fur seal (Arctocephalus townsendi) pup production, a species recovering from near extinction. Pup counts from 1991 to 1993 and from 2006 to 2019 were used to estimate deviations from a long-term trend as a proxy for the population's reproductive success. We estimated interannual SSTA as a subtraction from the linear trend spanning 1991-2019 for a 778,000 km2 area, which represents the primary foraging range of adult females. The long-term increase in pup production followed an exponential curve (R-B2 = rm), typical of species in a recovery phase. Pup production deviations from this trend responded to SSTA during the gestation period as a cubic polynomial function (R-B2 = rm 0.837), revealing that SSTA < -0.2°C and between ~0.6 and 1.38°C increased pup production in the subsequent breeding season, whereas normal to slightly warm (-0.17 to 0.6°C) and extreme SSTA (>1.4°C) decreased pup counts, arguably resulting from low prey availability and quality. This model allowed us to estimate pup production for years without observations, needed to understand the environmental variability influence on the recovery process of this species, and therefore constitutes a practical tool for its conservation and management. © 2022 The Author(s) 2022. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of International Council for the Exploration of the Sea.
Palabras clave: bottom-up effect; hierarchical Bayesian analyses; oceanic predators; population trends; sea surface temperature effects
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