Resumen del producto

We describe, in a dynamic model, the factors that might promote the local extinction of Hubbsinaturneri in the Lake Cuitzeo watershed, Mexico. The model was created using the STELLA program (v10.0, Isee Systems) and it incorporated and related information from different population characteristics with distinct habitat and degradation processes. We gathered an historical data base including management initiatives, temporary impacts and restoration practices whose synergy could affect the species development. An important impact, the construction of the Cointzio Reservoir at the beginning of the 1940s, fragmented the main tributary of the lake (Grande de Morelia River), and affected the fish distribution and movement. Isolation of the species into two populations was expected and imposed the creation of two sub-models: (1) upper and (2) lower part of the watershed. In sub-model 1, the population was mainly affected by land-use change, from forest to agriculture, aspect that promotes erosion, causing sedimentation, and affecting the trophic processes in the reservoir. In sub-model 2, the primary impact was the water quality degradation, related to the lack of treatment of wastewaters derived from the state capital, which had grown exponentially since the 1970s decade, the establishment of industrial activities, and a sensible increase in the use of agrochemicals. In both sub-models the hydrometeorological aspect also affected at different time periods, including the presence of wet and dry successive years. The increasing pollution along the river probable enhances the isolation of small populations, and the presence of exotic species could promote the loss of H. turneri individuals in low impacted areas like springs. Finally, at the end of the watershed, Lake Cuitzeo, the species was affected by the fishery practices (i.e., use of seine nets) and the desiccation of some areas of the water body

Palabras clave: Fish model

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