Resumen del producto

Projections of climate change for the region are uncertain in comparison to other regions, particularly regions in higher latitudes. Ecosystem impacts: In the extratropical extremes, off Baja California and Ecuador, the major process determining the ocean dynamics is coastal upwelling, for which strong debate exists on how it may respond to climate change. Major threats for the Gulf of California appear to be ocean acidification, hypoxia and harmful algal blooms. In the Pacific Central American Coastal large marine ecosystem (LME), high sensitivity to climate change is related to coastal ecosystems’ degradation. Overall, impacts are expected from poleward species shifts and local extinctions, expansion of the globally largest oxygen minimum zone, and coral reef communities suffering from ocean acidification. Impacts on fisheries: For small pelagics, interannual changes and multi-decadal trends will likely continue to be the dominant drivers of this fishery during this century. Squid fisheries can be expected to be episodic and opportunistic, with high variability in abundance and availability, which limits the possibility of building long-term sustainable industries based on this group. Although highly uncertain, latitudinal distribution shifts in tuna may affect industrial and coastal fisheries. Impacts in shrimp fisheries may be positive because of better recruitment. Even when small-scale multi-specific fisheries can rapidly adapt to available resources, many of the species on which they depend are highly vulnerable because of critical habitat degradation (coral reefs, mangroves, and saltmarshes). Adaptation options for the fisheries sector include improving research, management, planning and policy frameworks (including related technical, administrative, organizational adaptive capacities, and communication). For example: Modelling-based projections should incorporate historical patterns of fisheries and climate variability, and better data.

Palabras clave: fisheries; climate change; Management

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