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The Campeche Sound, on the Southern Gulf of Mexico, had been one of the most important fishing regions of Mexico, because of the shrimp trawl fishery and the diversity of species of fishes and invertebrates exploited by the small scale fishery. However, the shrimp fishery collapsed, present captures are about 1200 t per year respect to an average of more than 20,000 t per year captured in the decades of 1950’s and 1960’s. The collapse has been related to indices of climate change, and other evidences suggests a global decrease of the carrying capacity of the ecosystem. In this contribution we test this hypothesis. From a trophic model of the ecosystem (based on Ecopath) is used the ATlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, over the last six decades as a driver on primary producers leaving the signal to spread in the rest of the ecosystem via foodweb. The biomasses simulated with the dynamic trophic model (Ecosim) was calibrated using existing information on relative abundances of shrimp and other species of commercial fishes. For each year, over the 60 year period, population-to-ecosystem performance indicators were estimated indicating the contribution of each population to the maintainance of the order of the ecosystem. A base-line state of the ecosystem was defined with data from the period 1950’s to 1970’s, then decades of 1980’s, 1990’s and 2000’s were assumed as potential alternatives ecosystem states and compared with the base line. Data were also contrasted in terms of sustainability and vitality of the ecosystem. Even when the structure of the ecosystem (relative abundance of the species) shows clear differences between periods, ecosystem indicators suggest an ecosystem trend or alternatives states of the same ecosystem, instead different (independent) ecosystem states. The experiment suggests the need of addressing more directly the effects of the climate change as a strategy to adapt management to the potential alternative ecosystem states under sustainability-dynamic criteria.

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